TL;DR: The UK’s 2025/26 Flu Season is Early and Severe, Overwhelming Healthcare Systems
The 2025/26 flu season started unusually early and is dominated by the severe influenza A (H3N2) strain, causing a rapid spike in cases across the UK.
• Flu positivity rates are peaking a month earlier than usual, with hospitalization rates surging by 55% in early December.
• Children and young adults are driving infections, while older adults face high hospitalisation risks.
• Vaccine effectiveness is reduced due to a genetic shift in the H3N2 strain, but it still prevents severe complications.
Public health systems are under immense pressure, and authorities urge vaccination and basic hygiene to control the outbreak.
This year’s flu outbreak is proving to be both early and intense, challenging public health systems and sparking concerns. Across the UK, hospitals are seeing unprecedented pressure as flu-related admissions rise sharply, particularly among specific age groups and vulnerable populations. What’s making this flu season stand out, and how severe might it get? Let’s break it down by the numbers.
How Early Is This Flu Season Compared to Others?
The 2025/26 flu season started nearly a month earlier than usual. By mid-October, confirmed cases of influenza had already surged, with laboratories reporting up to 20% of daily positive tests in England by early December. This rapid uptick was unusual compared to prior years when flu positivity peaked later, often in January or February. Public health experts are calling this the fastest growth rate in flu cases recorded in recent memory.
Scotland has been particularly hit, with flu test positivity nearing 28%, almost double the rates seen in the same period during the severe seasons of 2022 and 2024. Across Wales and Northern Ireland, similar trends are being observed, suggesting that the viral spread is consistent across the UK.
What Strain Is Responsible for This Year’s Differences?
The culprit behind this year’s outbreak is influenza A (H3N2), a strain known for its ability to cause severe cases, hospitalisations, and lower vaccine efficacy, especially in older adults. This year, a genetic “shift” in the H3N2 strain was detected in summer 2025, potentially impacting how well current vaccines protect against the virus. However, health authorities emphasize that while the vaccine may not fully prevent infections, it still protects against severe illness.
Interestingly, H3N2 hasn’t been the dominant flu strain in several years, meaning population immunity has waned. This lack of recent exposure has likely intensified the spread and severity of this year’s outbreak.
Who Is Being Affected the Most?
Children and young people are driving this year’s flu wave. Data shows the highest rates of positive flu tests among 5, 14-year-olds, followed closely by the 15, 24-year-old age group. Schools and universities create a perfect breeding ground for the virus due to high interaction levels and confined spaces. Health authorities report that several schools, including one in Caerphilly, had to temporarily close or reinstate basic measures like sanitizing stations.
For adults over 45, particularly the elderly, flu cases remain fewer but much more severe, leading to higher hospitalisation rates. According to NHS statistics, older adults are five times more likely to be hospitalised due to flu complications than younger individuals.
The NHS Under Pressure
Hospitals are already feeling the strain of the early flu surge. By the first week of December, an average of 2,660 hospital beds were occupied by flu patients, a staggering 55% jump from the previous week. This level of demand is far outpacing what was seen at the same time during severe past flu seasons.
At full capacity, NHS hospitals operate with about 105,000 beds during the winter. If flu-related admissions exceed projections and surpass 5,000 beds in use, it may severely threaten the overall healthcare capacity.
How Effective Are Vaccines This Year?
While flu vaccines remain critical in curbing the severity of infections, vaccine uptake among eligible groups could be better. By late November, vaccination rates included:
- Approximately 70% of over-65s and nursing home residents.
- Around 42% of NHS staff.
- Only 40% of clinically vulnerable groups under age 65.
Vaccination efforts are particularly vital given the dominance of the H3N2 strain, which generally has a partial mismatch with yearly vaccines. This mismatch doesn’t make the vaccine obsolete but instead emphasizes its role in preventing hospitalizations, which could otherwise spiral.
What Steps Are Being Taken?
Public health authorities urge eligible individuals to come forward for vaccination and maintain basic hygiene measures to reduce the risk of transmission. Regular handwashing, avoiding crowded indoor spaces, and wearing masks if symptomatic can collectively help slow the outbreak.
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Frequently Asked Questions about the 2025/26 Flu Season
Why is this flu season starting earlier than usual?
The 2025/26 flu season began nearly a month earlier than usual, with confirmed flu cases rapidly increasing by October 2025. Typically, flu positivity peaks in January or February, but this year, labs in England reported that flu positivity reached over 20% by early December. Scotland has been especially affected, with flu test positivity nearing 28%, which is almost double that of severe previous seasons like 2022 and 2024. This early onset is the earliest and fastest growth rate in flu cases seen in years.
Public health experts believe various factors contributed, including waning population immunity since this year’s dominant strain, H3N2, hasn’t circulated widely in recent years. Learn more about these trends by reading the BBC News report that breaks down these figures and the outbreak’s impact.
What makes the 2025 H3N2 strain different?
The H3N2 strain dominating the 2025/26 flu season has undergone a genetic “shift,” making it somewhat mismatched with the current season’s flu vaccine. Unlike typical mutations or “drifts,” this shift affects the vaccine’s ability to fully prevent infections, though the vaccine still protects against severe complications.
Due to its genetic evolution, H3N2 spreads quickly, particularly in groups with reduced immunity, like children and older populations. Experts suggest that H3N2 also correlates with more hospitalizations compared to strains like H1N1. For detailed insights into this strain and why it matters, check out the official WHO flu update.
Who is most affected by the 2025 flu outbreak?
Children and young people account for the majority of cases this season, especially in the 5, 14 age bracket, followed by 15, 24-year-olds. Schools and universities serve as viral hotspots due to high interaction levels, leading to rapid transmission. Some schools in areas like Caerphilly have even resorted to closures or reintroducing hygiene measures like sanitizing stations.
Older populations, particularly adults aged 45+ and the elderly, have fewer confirmed cases but disproportionately face severe symptoms and hospitalizations. Adults over 85 are five times more likely to require hospital care due to complications.
For research-supported breakdowns on age-related trends and impacts, read Flu in five charts , how this year’s winter outbreak is different.
How are UK hospitals managing flu cases?
Hospitals in the UK are under immense pressure as flu-related admissions have spiked significantly. By early December, around 2,660 hospital beds across NHS hospitals were occupied by flu patients, marking a 55% increase from the previous week. NHS England operates at roughly 95% capacity during winter, and if flu cases exceed 5,000 beds, overall operations could face critical challenges.
The healthcare system is preparing for a projected worst-case scenario of 8,000 flu patients, further stressing resources. Find a detailed account of NHS challenges in seasonal outbreaks in this BMJ article.
How effective are flu vaccines this season?
Despite being less effective at preventing infections caused by this year’s H3N2 strain, flu vaccines remain essential, particularly for reducing severe symptoms and hospitalizations. Current vaccination rates show that 70% of those over 65, 40% of clinically vulnerable groups under 65, and only 42% of NHS staff have been vaccinated as of late November.
Health experts urge increased vaccine uptake in vulnerable populations and remind the public of its critical role in preventing severe outcomes. Learn more about vaccine trends and efforts in the official NHS flu vaccination campaign updates.
What prevention strategies can I use?
To reduce your flu risk this season, experts recommend getting vaccinated as the top preventive measure. Additionally:
- Wash your hands often with soap for at least 20 seconds.
- Avoid close contact with visibly sick individuals.
- Stay home if you show flu-like symptoms like fever or persistent cough.
- Limit visits to crowded spaces and consider wearing masks in high-risk areas.
Families should also educate children about hygiene, as young people are driving this year’s spread. Community efforts in schools and workplaces, such as disinfecting surfaces, can slow down seasonal spikes.
Why is vaccination coverage lower this year?
Flu vaccination rates this year are notably lower among healthcare workers and clinically vulnerable groups under 65. Some reasons include vaccine fatigue post-COVID-19, misinformation about vaccine effectiveness, and logistical barriers like appointment scheduling.
Public health programs continue to emphasize the importance of flu shots and their role in preventing severe complications. If you’re looking for a community healthcare provider to get your flu shot, refer to NHS initiatives or your local pharmacy.
How does hygiene-focused dining promote immunity during flu outbreaks?
Nutritious diets are essential for a healthy immune system, particularly during flu season. The MELA AI platform connects diners in Malta and Gozo to restaurants prioritizing health-focused meals as part of their menus. By dining at MELA-indexed restaurants, you can enjoy options rich in antioxidants, vitamins, and other immunity-enhancing nutrients, which help reduce your vulnerability to illnesses like the flu.
Explore Malta’s best health-conscious dining options through the MELA Restaurants Directory and find venues that align with your wellness goals.
Which restaurants in Malta cater to flu-season dietary needs?
MELA AI makes finding restaurants offering nutrient-rich, immune-boosting meals in Malta and Gozo simpler than ever. Their ranking system highlights venues committed to healthier menus, making it easier to find options that support wellness even during peak flu season. Many restaurants offering fresh, vitamin-packed ingredients have been awarded the MELA sticker, an indicator of health-conscious commitment.
Plan your next healthy meal by visiting the MELA AI Restaurants Directory, which showcases top-rated establishments across both islands.
Should I still travel or dine out during this flu outbreak?
Traveling and dining out remain safe if basic precautions are followed. Ensure you’re vaccinated, avoid overly crowded areas, and adhere to hygiene measures like frequent handwashing. Choosing health-conscious restaurants through trusted platforms like MELA AI can also help.
For travelers in Malta and Gozo, MELA AI-certified restaurants offer quality options tailored to health-minded diners. By selecting these venues, you’re supporting healthier dining experiences while mitigating seasonal risks. Explore restaurant choices in Malta’s top-rated health-focused dining guide.
About the Author
Violetta Bonenkamp, also known as MeanCEO, is an experienced startup founder with an impressive educational background including an MBA and four other higher education degrees. She has over 20 years of work experience across multiple countries, including 5 years as a solopreneur and serial entrepreneur. Throughout her startup experience she has applied for multiple startup grants at the EU level, in the Netherlands and Malta, and her startups received quite a few of those. She’s been living, studying and working in many countries around the globe and her extensive multicultural experience has influenced her immensely.
Violetta Bonenkamp’s expertise in CAD sector, IP protection and blockchain
Violetta Bonenkamp is recognized as a multidisciplinary expert with significant achievements in the CAD sector, intellectual property (IP) protection, and blockchain technology.
CAD Sector:
- Violetta is the CEO and co-founder of CADChain, a deep tech startup focused on developing IP management software specifically for CAD (Computer-Aided Design) data. CADChain addresses the lack of industry standards for CAD data protection and sharing, using innovative technology to secure and manage design data.
- She has led the company since its inception in 2018, overseeing R&D, PR, and business development, and driving the creation of products for platforms such as Autodesk Inventor, Blender, and SolidWorks.
- Her leadership has been instrumental in scaling CADChain from a small team to a significant player in the deeptech space, with a diverse, international team.
IP Protection:
- Violetta has built deep expertise in intellectual property, combining academic training with practical startup experience. She has taken specialized courses in IP from institutions like WIPO and the EU IPO.
- She is known for sharing actionable strategies for startup IP protection, leveraging both legal and technological approaches, and has published guides and content on this topic for the entrepreneurial community.
- Her work at CADChain directly addresses the need for robust IP protection in the engineering and design industries, integrating cybersecurity and compliance measures to safeguard digital assets.
Blockchain:
- Violetta’s entry into the blockchain sector began with the founding of CADChain, which uses blockchain as a core technology for securing and managing CAD data.
- She holds several certifications in blockchain and has participated in major hackathons and policy forums, such as the OECD Global Blockchain Policy Forum.
- Her expertise extends to applying blockchain for IP management, ensuring data integrity, traceability, and secure sharing in the CAD industry.
Violetta is a true multiple specialist who has built expertise in Linguistics, Education, Business Management, Blockchain, Entrepreneurship, Intellectual Property, Game Design, AI, SEO, Digital Marketing, cyber security and zero code automations. Her extensive educational journey includes a Master of Arts in Linguistics and Education, an Advanced Master in Linguistics from Belgium (2006-2007), an MBA from Blekinge Institute of Technology in Sweden (2006-2008), and an Erasmus Mundus joint program European Master of Higher Education from universities in Norway, Finland, and Portugal (2009).
She is the founder of Fe/male Switch, a startup game that encourages women to enter STEM fields, and also leads CADChain, and multiple other projects like the Directory of 1,000 Startup Cities with a proprietary MeanCEO Index that ranks cities for female entrepreneurs. Violetta created the “gamepreneurship” methodology, which forms the scientific basis of her startup game. She also builds a lot of SEO tools for startups. Her achievements include being named one of the top 100 women in Europe by EU Startups in 2022 and being nominated for Impact Person of the year at the Dutch Blockchain Week. She is an author with Sifted and a speaker at different Universities. Recently she published a book on Startup Idea Validation the right way: from zero to first customers and beyond, launched a Directory of 1,500+ websites for startups to list themselves in order to gain traction and build backlinks and is building MELA AI to help local restaurants in Malta get more visibility online.
For the past several years Violetta has been living between the Netherlands and Malta, while also regularly traveling to different destinations around the globe, usually due to her entrepreneurial activities. This has led her to start writing about different locations and amenities from the POV of an entrepreneur. Here’s her recent article about the best hotels in Italy to work from.
